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The
UN’s global demographic analysis predicts a 50% increase in world
population from the present 6.5bn to 10bn by 2050. Most of this growth
will be in poorer countries where urbanisation of rural populations and
rising incomes lead to higher consumption of water, meat, vegetables,
fruit, alcohol and fuel.
Water
is essential for survival. Urbanisation and rising incomes in developing
countries have hugely increased demand for clean drinking water,
sanitation and irrigation. Other competing industries such as tourism
and steel make more efficient use of water and pay higher prices than
agriculture. Consequently, water levels are falling across many regions
including China, Australia, India and North America – all important
global food producers.
Over
the last 4 years, all grain stocks (including rice) in the world have
fallen by 33% compared to the 2000/2001 level. Even with the bumper
global harvest of 2004/2005, the USDA estimates global grain stocks
level to have fallen by 5m tonnes. The World Bank’s forecast is that
agricultural productivity will need to double in order to feed 10bn
people by 2050. Increasing provision of non-food commodities will
provide competition for agricultural land and inputs. Whilst the Amazon
as been cleared for soyabean fields, many areas are becoming infertile
from de-forestation, diminishing water levels, industrial pollution and
poor environmental management. For example, the Northern Plains of
China, once the Communist breadbasket, is now the fastest growing desert
in the world. Rainforests and large areas of productive farmland in
central and east Africa have been reduced to barren land where peasants
and nomadic tribes can barely survive.
How
can we increase global agricultural output by 50% over this time with
less productive land, fewer agricultural workers, declining reserves of
water and increasingly scarce reserves of oil and gas? How can we use
advances in science and technology to increase yields of crops without
risk to health or environment? How can we achieve bulk production and
maintain quality and price that the poorer world citizens can afford?
How can we produce affordable biofuels to conserve our environment?
Farmers in developing countries will need to secure higher yields for
crops they consume or sell. Increased use of genetically modified (GM)
seed, use of mechanical implements and irrigation schemes will require
investment and technology transfer. GM technology dominates soya, sugar,
maize, cotton production in North and South America. Although China is
the world’s second largest grain producer, it cannot feed its 1bn
citizens without massive imports. In China today, only GM cotton is
commercially grown but it is spending more on GM research than the USA
indicating that it would be ready to change to GM crops in future.
Carbohydrates in sugar beet, wheat and potatoes can be fermented to
yield bioethanol that is used as a component in premium unleaded petrol.
Rape seed oil, sunflower seed oil and waste cooking oil can be
chemically esterified to yield biodegradable diesel.
With
declining reserves of oil and gas in the North Sea,
uncertainty of Middle Eastern supplies and the wildly fluctuating global
oil price (from US$8 to US$56), the EU must aggressively promote
production of biofuels, wind and solar energy. Currently, the EU
produces only 15m hectoliters of biofuel against Brazil’s 75m and USA’s
120m hectoliters.Recent EU Directives for production of biofuels,
especially from processing sugar beet, wheat and oil seed rape, set
usage to be 5.75% (120m hectolitres) by 2010. The Directives enable
Member States to grant reduced excise duties to substitute petrol or
diesel with biofuels.
The EU needs to adopt a new agricultural plan that accepts the use of GM
crops for biofuel and helps its own farmers to reduce EU subsidized
production of sugar, tobacco, maize and cotton that seriously undermine
export incomes of farmers in the developing countries. The EU must help
these poor farmers to acquire better seed, irrigation and technology
transfer to achieve higher yields of crops so that they can be
self-sufficient in food and have enough income to continue to live in
peace in their own countries! |
