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Fowl pest, a form of bird flu, was
first identified in Italy in 1878. Since then European poultry farmers
have contained mild forms without difficulty. Scientists have monitored
an increase in pathogenic strains over the last 30 years. In 1997, a
type of virus identified as H5N1 killed six people in Hong Kong,
prompting the slaughter of all chickens there. In 2003/2004 another H5N1
virus hit Southeast Asia, resulting in a cull of more than 150 million
birds. In August 2005, the virus was found in migratory birds from
China, Mongolia and Russia putting at risk European poultry stocks.
Avian flu is highly contagious for all
birds, especially poultry. Whilst migratory waterfowl (e.g. wild duck)
have a higher resistance, their droppings spread the virus precipitating
a potential mortality rate of almost 100% as viruses mutate quickly from
low to high risk. About 850,000 geese, swans and ducks migrate in late
autumn from the Qinghai Lake in the wilds of Northern China. Many
thousand birds died from Avian flu in China this summer. Consequently,
Siberia and Kazakhstan ordered a mass cull but to no avail as the virus
moves at 40Km a day and has now reached the EU.
In 2003, Dutch and German poultry
farmers witnessed an outbreak of a highly pathogenic strain of bird flu
that resulted in the loss of 30 million birds in Holland and 400,000
birds in Germany. The virus had infected 89 people, one fatally. Whilst
the Dutch Government has ordered its poultry farmers to retain their
poultry indoors, the British have increased vigilance to seal off and
cull their birds that are outside. This strategy did work to contain
avian flu in turkeys in Norfolk in1992.
As 26% of Britain’s poultry flock is
free range or organic compared to 5% in Holland, there is greater risk
in Britain, especially as a comparatively high proportion of pig and
poultry farmers keep their animals outdoors. Eggs from free range flocks
free to move outdoors command a higher price and UK farmers would
require compensation if they are forced to retain their flocks inside.
Some scientists think that pigs could
be the catalyst for mutation of new virus strains as H5N1 continues to
circulate. Two or more flu viruses infecting pigs can swap genetic
information to produce more virulent strains that could adapt and infect
people and trigger a pandemic. Swine herds in Indonesia have been tested
positive for H5N1. The 1918-19 “Spanish” flu epidemic killed 20 to 40
million people and some scientists attribute this to a mutation of a
bird flu virus. Pharmacology Professor Ya Ha of Yale University says:
“There are 15 avian flu viruses and each one has the potential to jump
across the species barrier”.
Normally, humans are not affected by
bird viruses but the H5N1 strain has been lethal as 112 confirmed cases
of human infection, including 57 dead were recorded in Southeast Asia.
Luckily, H5N1 is not contagious between humans and eating cooked poultry
meat and eggs is safe. All confirmed human carriers have been linked to
direct contact with diseased or dead poultry.
It is alleged that any outbreak of
avian flu in UK would precipitate deaths of 20,000 to 700,000 people
overwhelming the NHS. Millions would suffer breathing problems,
especially the young who have no immunity from previous exposure.
Emergency measures would include
restriction on assembly, travel and compulsory closure of schools,
factories and recreational venues.
Whilst a vaccine against H5N1 is
undergoing clinical trials, an antiviral drug called Tamiflu
manufactured by Roche (Swiss) is known to be effective provided it is
administered in the early stages. The UK Ministry of Health is likely to
spend £100m stockpiling about 15 million courses for those most at risk.
It is allocating 2 million courses for key public sector workers
including important BBC personnel and cabinet ministers. Allegedly,
there is no allocation for leading opposition politicians – I wonder
why?
Migratory birds, like air pollution,
recognize no national boundaries. How well is the EU prepared to manage
such dangers that pose a direct threat to its citizens?
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